Hey nerds,
We haven’t done one of these deep dives in a while, but this one’s going to be worth the wait.
I recently unpacked an incredible dataset on my Nerds for Humanity livestream that helps explain, in stark and sometimes painful clarity, how and why the Republican Party beat the Democrats in 2024. This wasn’t just a fluke or a one-off; this was a structural unraveling of core Democratic coalitions—and we have the data to prove it.
If you're wondering how Trump, a twice-impeached, criminally indicted former president with negative favorables, could come back and win a general election… buckle up.
This is the data story the major networks won’t tell you. But I will—because that’s what we do on Nerds for Humanity.
Why We Lost: The Data is Devastating
Let’s start with this: the numbers were available. The insights were out there. But too many Democratic leaders refused to listen.
All of the charts I covered come from the Blue Rose Research Group, a Democratic-leaning analytics org led by David Shor. These aren’t MAGA polls or right-wing talking points—this is our data, and it paints a brutal picture.
Let’s start with a quote that stopped me in my tracks:
“Harris only got 58% of Hispanic moderates and just 67% of Asian moderates… Hillary got 81% of Hispanic moderates just eight years earlier.”
That’s a collapse, folks. There’s no other way to describe it. The Democratic Party has been hemorrhaging support among moderate Hispanics and Asians—two demographics that were once reliably blue. These aren’t tiny slivers of the electorate either. Combined, moderate Hispanic and Asian voters make up 9% of registered voters. That’s not niche. That’s decisive.
And if you’re thinking this was just a Harris problem, not a Biden problem, think again. Biden himself had already lost ground with these voters in 2020. The trend line goes back to Clinton ‘16. The bottom fell out in 2024.
A Coalition in Collapse
The Democratic Party has long relied on a patchwork coalition: people of color, young voters, urban professionals, and working-class moderates. But that quilt is unraveling.
Let’s take another sobering look at what’s happening with naturalized immigrants:
“Trump likely won naturalized citizen voters who were born outside the U.S… they swung from Biden +27 to Trump +1.”
If you’ve been telling yourself that Democrats are the party of immigrants, this stat should give you serious pause. Naturalized citizens make up 10% of the electorate—and Trump won them. Think about that. A guy who called Mexicans rapists and pushed Muslim bans won the immigrant vote.
What happened?
For many of these voters, especially those who came here legally through a structured process, the Democratic messaging around open borders and asylum chaos rang alarm bells. My own parents came to the U.S. on H-1 visas in the late 1960s. They’re legal immigrants who value law and order. They are not sold on the current Democratic approach to immigration.
The Republicans saw an opening and exploited it. Democrats, meanwhile, either assumed they had immigrant loyalty or were afraid to even talk about border enforcement.
Result? Trump wins the immigrant vote.
Gen Z Isn’t a Lock, Either
Let’s bust another myth: that young people are a guaranteed Democratic firewall. It’s not true anymore.
The data shows clearly:
“Young voters have become more Republican.”
Let me say that again. More Republican.
If you’re a 20-year-old white man in America, you are very unlikely to support the Democratic Party. For young men of color, it’s basically a coin flip. The only demographic under 25 that still solidly supports Democrats? Young women of color.
This is not sustainable. Not if you want to build a winning coalition.
We also saw a doubling of the gender gap in democratic support among under-25 voters. That’s a generational time bomb. The party is becoming increasingly reliant on a narrower and narrower base—and losing traction everywhere else.
We need to be real about this. You cannot build a durable national majority on the support of college-educated urbanites and young women of color alone. Not in this country.
The Disengaged Showed Up—for Trump
This next one floored me:
“Among voters who didn’t vote in 2020 but did in 2024, Trump was +14.”
Let that sink in. The folks who sat out 2020 and came off the bench in 2024? They weren’t inspired by the Democrats. They didn’t show up to protect democracy. They voted for Trump. In droves.
This demolishes the fantasy that the more we expand turnout, the better it is for Democrats. It turns out, the disengaged aren’t necessarily progressive idealists. A lot of them are politically cynical, angry at institutions, and drawn to chaos agents.
Which brings us to the most jarring insight of the dataset:
“Most voters agreed that what’s needed is a major change and a shock to the system.”
Fifty-three percent of Americans wanted a political earthquake. Not stability. Not a return to norms. Not even democracy protection. A wrecking ball.
Democrats tried to run on continuity and calm. Trump ran on disruption. Guess which one the voters wanted?
Kamala’s Image Problem
Let’s talk about Kamala Harris for a minute.
The numbers are ugly. According to the Blue Rose data:
“Biden had +6 favorability in 2020. Harris had -6 in 2024.”
That’s a 12-point swing.
Now, some of that is due to unrelenting right-wing attacks, and yes, likely some latent racism and sexism. But that can’t explain it all. The cold truth is that many voters—especially moderates—saw Harris as ideologically extreme.
“Voters saw Harris as more ideologically extreme than Trump.”
Think about that. Trump, who tried to overturn an election, whose administration was a firehose of far-right policy, was seen as closer to voters’ own views than Kamala Harris.
And you can’t blame all of this on Fox News. The Harris campaign failed to define her as a pragmatic leader. She didn’t establish credibility on issues that matter to swing voters—like the economy, immigration, or public safety. Her prosecutorial past alienated the left. Her perceived progressivism scared the center. It was a no-man’s-land candidacy.
The Economy Was Everything
The most lopsided data point in the entire report might be this one:
“Cost of living versus abortion: 79% said cost of living was more important.”
Now repeat that with every issue:
Cost of living vs student debt: 94–6
Cost of living vs race relations: 87–13
Cost of living vs climate change: 83–17
Cost of living vs border security: 54–46
Every time, the cost of living wins. Every. Time.
Democrats ran on abortion rights, student debt relief, climate action, and social justice. Voters wanted relief from inflation.
And worse: when asked which party they trust more on cost of living? Republicans won.
That’s a catastrophe. If you’re losing trust on the most important issue, you’re going to lose elections.
What’s Next: A New Center-Left Realignment?
So where do we go from here?
Three takeaways:
1. The Democratic Party is becoming a second-tier party.
It’s bleeding moderates, struggling with young voters, losing naturalized immigrants, and falling out of touch with economic pain. The coalition that elected Obama twice is gone.
2. Trump isn’t popular—he just looks like the only alternative.
Most Americans still disapprove of Trump. He didn’t win because he became more likable. He won because Democrats offered no compelling alternative.
3. There’s a path forward—but it requires a bold reset.
We need a center-left revival. Think Midwest governors. Think economic populism without culture war baggage. Think real solutions on healthcare, education, wages, and immigration. Think pragmatic progressivism.
As I said on the stream:
“We can be a nation of immigrants and a nation of laws. That shouldn’t be some exclusive position of the Republican Party.”
The Democratic Party must stop running scared from the center. We need to own a vision for responsible reform. Medicare option for all. Higher minimum wage. Immigration reform with integrity. Fiscal sustainability.
Because if we don’t, the electorate will keep swinging toward the wrecking ball.
Final Thoughts
Here’s the kicker: Trump didn’t win in a landslide. His popular vote margin was razor-thin. But he won all the swing states, and that’s what counts.
We can take solace in one last stat:
“Most Americans do not approve of Donald Trump.”
That means all is not lost. But we need to get real—fast.
I believe there’s still time to build a coalition rooted in pragmatic progressivism—one that inspires the disaffected, earns back moderates, and wins on the kitchen table issues.
We’ve got two years in the wilderness. Let’s use them wisely.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider supporting Nerds for Humanity by becoming a YouTube channel member. Your membership helps pay for livestreaming software, camera gear, and podcast hosting—and you get a shout-out on every stream (plus, if you join live, I might even ring the Swiss cowbell).
Let’s keep bringing data-driven political content to more nerds.
Bye nerds.
Share this post