Welcome, Nerds!
The 2028 election may feel far away, but as we saw in the last few election cycles, early conversations can shape the narrative for candidates long before ballots are cast. In this latest Nerds for Humanity livestream, we analyzed the leading contenders for the Democratic nomination and explored how they stack up on policy, electability, and appeal to voters.
Using video clips, discussion, and a live rank-choice voting poll, we created a snapshot of the Democratic bench and imagined how they might fare on the national stage.
The Format
The livestream aimed to create an engaging, interactive environment where viewers could rank candidates in real-time, with results reshuffled across rounds of rank-choice voting.
We examined eight prominent candidates:
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
Pete Buttigieg
Wes Moore
Kamala Harris
Gretchen Whitmer
Rohit (Ro) Khanna
We also briefly considered some honorable mentions, including Katie Porter. Below, we summarize the discussion around each candidate and reveal the rank-choice voting results.
The Candidates: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Highlights
1. Gavin Newsom
The charismatic governor of California took center stage early in the discussion.
Strengths: Newsom boasts a progressive track record on climate, minimum wage, and public health, making him an attractive candidate for left-leaning voters. His photogenic, camera-ready presence and ability to speak with authority add to his appeal.
Weaknesses: Critics see him as "too slick" and polarizing, especially when it comes to homelessness and wildfires in California. His handling of crises in the largest U.S. state is sure to be heavily scrutinized.
2. Josh Shapiro
Often dubbed the "White Obama," Pennsylvania's governor earned high marks for his bridge-building efforts (literally and figuratively).
Strengths: Shapiro’s moderate stance and ability to appeal to suburban voters in battleground states make him a strong contender for the general election. His oratory skills also stood out in video clips, showcasing his ability to connect with audiences.
Weaknesses: While popular in Pennsylvania, his national name recognition is still limited. His pro-Israel stance could create friction with progressive voters concerned about U.S. foreign policy.
3. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
A darling of the progressive wing, AOC brought her grassroots energy and social media prowess to the table.
Strengths: As a younger candidate with a significant online following, AOC can energize young voters and the progressive base. Her confidence and communication skills were evident in her interviews.
Weaknesses: Critics noted that her fiery rhetoric might alienate moderate voters in a general election. Some viewers preferred her conversational podcast tone over her louder, rally-style speeches.
4. Pete Buttigieg
The former South Bend mayor and current Secretary of Transportation was a favorite among many livestream participants.
Strengths: Pete’s intelligence (Rhodes Scholar), military background, and effectiveness as a communicator shone through in clips of him taking on Fox News hosts and delivering powerful speeches.
Weaknesses: Concerns remain about whether America is ready for an openly gay president. Additionally, his time as Secretary of Transportation has not been without controversy, with critics questioning his effectiveness during crises like the supply chain debacle.
5. Wes Moore
The newly elected governor of Maryland is a rising star.
Strengths: Moore’s inspirational life story, veteran background, and success in a key state make him an intriguing candidate. His ability to communicate optimism and vision could set him apart.
Weaknesses: Limited national recognition and experience at the executive level compared to other contenders.
6. Kamala Harris
As the sitting vice president, Harris naturally made the list.
Strengths: Her historical significance as the first woman and person of color to serve as vice president remains a major asset. She also brings a blend of moderate and progressive appeal.
Weaknesses: Her lackluster performance in the 2020 primaries and low favorability ratings make her a divisive figure within the party.
7. Gretchen Whitmer
Michigan’s governor emerged as a dark horse favorite in the livestream.
Strengths: Whitmer’s leadership in a critical swing state, her ability to address key infrastructure issues ("fix the damn roads"), and her steady demeanor during crises like COVID-19 earned her praise. She projects strength without polarizing energy.
Weaknesses: While compelling, some worry her Midwestern appeal might not translate as effectively on the national stage.
8. Ro Khanna
The congressman from California was a late addition to the livestream lineup.
Strengths: Known for his progressive stances and focus on the future of American industry, Khanna demonstrated his policy chops in both interviews and speeches.
Weaknesses: Khanna’s limited executive experience and low name recognition outside of California could be significant hurdles.
Rank-Choice Voting: The Results
The most exciting part of the livestream was revealing the results of the rank-choice voting, where viewers ranked their preferred candidates.
Initial Round Results
AOC led the first round with significant support from progressives.
Whitmer, Buttigieg, and Shapiro rounded out the top four.
Lower-ranked candidates, including Harris and Moore, were eliminated early, redistributing their votes to remaining contenders.
Final Rounds
As votes were redistributed, a fascinating dynamic emerged:
Whitmer gained substantial support from Buttigieg and Shapiro voters, propelling her to victory in the final round.
AOC’s early lead dwindled as she failed to pick up significant support from eliminated candidates’ voters.
Winner: Gretchen Whitmer emerged as the consensus choice for the 2028 Democratic nominee.
Key Takeaways
Diverse Bench Strength: The Democratic Party has an impressive lineup of candidates with unique backgrounds, skills, and appeal.
The Power of Rank-Choice Voting: This format highlighted how second and third preferences matter, ultimately producing a nominee with broad support.
Whitmer’s Rising Star: The Michigan governor’s combination of executive experience and relatability resonated with a majority of participants.
Final Thoughts
While it’s impossible to predict how the 2028 race will unfold, this livestream demonstrated the value of early discussions and voter engagement. Gretchen Whitmer may have won our rank-choice experiment, but other candidates like Buttigieg, Shapiro, and even AOC bring their own unique strengths to the table.
Stay tuned for more deep dives into politics, policy, and beyond on Nerds for Humanity!
What do you think? Who should the Democratic Party rally behind in 2028?
Vote on my RCV ballot and see the latest results here: https://app.rankedvote.co/rv/hgat5trpry84suzthc/vote
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